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» Picking Up the Millennial Tookit from 3pointD.com
Alvis Birgis at the Second Life Future Salon has an interesting post on whether virtual worlds and related metaversal technologies will help catalyze broad change in the world. Hyperbole or considered foresight? You decide. ... [Read More]

Comments

Henrik Bennetsen

Obviously hard to say anything for certain out there, but I think that you manage to identify a number of interesting factors that in play right now. I agree that your conclusions are reasonable but they need not be US centric. In fact I would predict that current up and coming economies (think India & China) with rising education levels will be a strong factor here. There are other things such as science that deserves a mention, but as you stated that this is just the start of a line of thinking and I will be interested to keep up with this as you move forward.

alvisbrigis

Henrik. I really like the stuff you are writing on http://www.henrikbennetsen.com/ and http://slcreativity.org/blog/ . I have some memes to add that you will hopefully dig, just need some free time to think some more things out. But they're on the way!

Re: your comments about the Millennial Toolkit:

You are dead on that missing from the equation are other non-communication-based innovations. The section listing the technologies should be relabelled to read "THE MILLENNIAL COMMUNICATION TOOLKIT" and not "THE MILLENNIAL TOOLKIT".

But I'll take a stab at what components a full toolkit would include, to continue to push this envelope, develop this memeplex, and hopefully generate some more value.

In addition to those new ICTs, a full "MILLENNIAL TOOLKIT" would also include new advanced, more complex, MEST compressed 1) hard technologies (physical tools), 2) soft technologies (memeplexes, ideas, behavioral instructions sets, ideologies, philosophies, modes of rational thinking), and 3) Behavior (combination / mixing of Hard and Soft Technologies over time). The way I look at it, these three categories plus ICTs, which may be viewed as lying between Hard and Soft Technologies, compose 4 basic categories of physical structures that compose what we percieve as human society

Another way of looking at it: Now that I think of it, John Smart has posted a list that is semantically a bit different than what I propose, but which may be more useful when it comes to breaking down the general overarching domains of identifiable structures that interact to give rise to life as we know it, and main elements of the system that conspire autocatalytically to create what we view as change.

John lists the following domains in support of his Developmental Singularity Hypothesis (http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:6s2IdInYtIQJ:singularitywatch.com/developmentalsinghypothesis.html+MEST+compression&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=15):

1. Informational Substrate -- Examples: Computation, information theory, dynamical systems theory
2. Physical Substrate -- Examples: Astrophysical, physical and chemical sciences
3. Genetic Substrate -- Examples: Biological sciences, evolutionary psychology
4. Memetic Substrate -- Examples: History, social sciences, cognitive sciences, philosophy of mind
5. Technologic Substrate -- Examples: Engineering (chemical, mechanical, electrical, software, etc.), science and technology studies, history and philosophy of science and technology , technology roadmapping and forecasting

Personally, I view information, physical structures, genetics, and memes as technology, but think it's more important to agree that these lists both generally succeed in encapsulating the major structural factors/domains/categories in play. So if we can agree on the general domains (suggestions please if you don't agree, or have more to add) then we can proceed and start making lists of New Structures / Structural Developments by Domain that we expect will compose the Full Millennial Toolkit and catalyze the change to come during the next several years.

ICTs: 3-D Virtual Worlds (Second Life [www.secondlife.com], Multiverse [www.multiverse.net], IMVU.com [www.IMVU.com], Web 2.0 (MySpace [www.myspace.com], Friendster [www.friendster.com], Facebook [www.facebook.com], RSS Feeds, Blogs), Bottom-up Reference Tools (Wikipedia [www.wikipedia.com], Hollywood Stock Exchange [www.hsx.com], Google Earth [www.download-google-earth.org], and Rapidly Deployable and Affordable Video Transfer (IPV6 [www.ipv6.org] , Bit-Torrent [www.bittorrent.com], Democracy Player [www.getdemocracy.com]). -- Also, currency and micropayment sytems. I'd make the argument that Money itself is an early ICT, and that micropayments represent an important MEST compression of this. -- Tangental Note: There's an interesting debate going on between Phil Bowermaster and Will Brown http://www.blog.speculist.com/archives/000765.html about the nature of currency in relation to the thoery of MEST Compression. I definitely subscribe to the Bowermaster school of thought, and would point out that MEST compression has been going in nature for a long, long time. Just read Chapter 6 of Simon Conway Morris' tour de force Life's Solution. He argues soundly for biologicla convergence, which I think is directly related to MEST compression. (Any other big sub-categories??)

Hard Technology: Nanotech, Biotech, Genetics, Microfabrication, 3-D Printing, New Fuels, Carbon Nanotubes, Faster Computer Processors, OLEDs, Dynamic New Rubbers and Plastics, Wi-Max, Augmented Reality Setups, 3-G Cell Phones, Mobile Networking Devices, Better Projectors, Holograms, Higher Resolution Everything, Biofeedback Devices, GPS Integration into Everything, New Sensors, Networks, etc.

Soft Technology: Ideologies, Economic Models, Biological Models, Mathematics, Chemistry, Physics, Psychology, Systems Models, Philosophies, etc.

Behavior: Exponential Technology Growth. Information on a Commodity Curve. Information Aggregation Patterns: MyLifeBits, Google Desktop. MEST/System Quantication: MEST Compression. Behavior Quantification. Networking of Information -- Shannon's Information Laws . Control Room Theory or Autocatalytic Neuroeconomic Ordering/Networking. Hierarchy of Needs Drives: Survival. Food. Water. Shelter. Fuel. Reproduction. Relative economic success. Desire for Conrtrol Over Perceived Environment, aka COPE. :) Self-actualization progress. Trends in # of miliionaires, billionaires. Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns. Singularity Economics and Developmental Trends. Shift to Information Society. Social trends. etc.


What's the Best Way to Identify the Drivers of Change?
Of course I/we will keep forging ahead into this lush information jungle, but I can't help but believe that the real-deal quantification of this stuff will be accomplished with help form bottom-up networks/wikis/idea markets. In accordance to the theories at the heart of Wisodom of Crowds by Surowiecki (http://www.randomhouse.com/features/wisdomofcrowds/) and Smart Mobs by Rheingold (http://www.smartmobs.com/), we should harness collective intelligence to fill-out these lists. I believe that once we can provide folks with several easy-to-understand bins, or domains, then we can ask them to en mass fill them up and critique them. Also, I think it's very feasible to ask users to predict when these structure will pop into existence via a Prediction Market, but with new rules that allow for the standardization of the knowledge, such as the Open Source Tunnel of Time: http://slfuturesalon.blogs.com/second_life_future_salon/2006/02/the_next_proces.html#more. I believe that predictive structural/behavioral/informational/MEST markets designed to create useful and easily cross-referencable 2-d, 3-d, and 4-D databases will greatly help to communicate and diffuse the Full Millennial Toolkit. That's probably why I've got an ICT-leaning bias when I think about technological evolution/development.


Hope this post wasn't too esoteric.

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-vis

Updated Thought About the Significance of the Metaverse, Particularly as the Most Important New Technology in the Millenial Toolkit

When I first posted about the Millennial Toolkit on slfuturesalon.blogs.com I received the critique that the toolkit is overly communications-centric and discounts other evolving technologies. Being that this was a solid and valid point, I then acknowledged my bias toward communications, which is due to the fact that I regularly work in the communications field. Of course other harder technologies will play a huge role in the ongoing development of the species. But nevertheless I find myself sticking to the belief that communications technology, particularly the emerging ICT called the Metaverse or 3D/4D web, will be the most important driver of change in the near-term (say 5-10 years).

While all technology interdependently co-evolves, ICTs (technologies like cave paintings, chants, whistling, songs, money, language, books, the telegraph, radio, television, the world wide web) have historically caused/allowed humans to broadly change their socio-economic behavior. The Metaverse is a technology that 1) for the first time in human history can incorporate all previous ICTs, 2) has the power to dramatically affect/empower Communication (superior comm. Platform, allows arrays and recombination of all previous ICTs), Human Neurons (allows news styles of and ultimately quicker learning), Information (allows for new dynamic and contextual information storage), Technology (many new soft and hard technologies will evolve and be developed in virtual worlds, the Metaverse is a new hyper-fluid prototyping substrate, it also allows for the faster development technologies externally by enabling quicker economic behavior and communication), and 3) it is being developed and is diffusing at lightning speed, FASTER THAN ANY PREVIOUS ICT, which proves its utility to the economy and the species.

Yes, the evolution of the metaverse depends on the evolution of many other technologies, and yet it can be viewed as a technology or domain in and of itself. Therefore, I think it's okay to view it as the primary driver of change that will probably play an integral role in the next American Fourth Turning (Strauss and Howe) and a much broader planetary shift into the Information Age.

(I've been enjoying a bit of an externalization spurt that I hope will prove useful. If interested, go check out my myspace blog via the URL listed above and zip me some comments.)

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外国為替取引手数料は全通貨ペア無料です。●口座開設時最低預託証拠金額は5万円です。発注の際には、各通貨ペアとも取引金額に対して最低0.33%(レバレッ ジ300倍選択時、ZARJPY・USDZAR・EURZAR・GBPZARは最低0.5%)の証拠金が必要です。必要証拠金額は取引金額を選択レバレッ ジで除した額を、毎営業日の評価レートで円換算して算出されます。
外国為替得証拠金取引は元本や利益が保証されたものではありません。各国の金融政策、 為替相場変動等により、損失を被る可能性があります。●外国為替証拠金取引では、その取引金額は選択レバレッジ倍率分、必要証拠金より大きくなります。実 際に預託した証拠金額以上の取引が可能なため、お持ちのポジションとは逆の不利な方向に為替相場が変動した場合、大きな損失を被る可能性があり、その損失 の額は、預託した証拠金額に限定されません。
●当社が提示する外国為替取引レートの売付の価格と買付の価格には差(スプレッド)があります。●取引通貨の 金利動向により、スワップポイント(金利差調整分)が、支払となる場合があります。

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