Here's a far-out spur-of-the-moment post I wrote that places Second Life in a broader evolutionary context. Hope it's not too whacked out, that it's at least a little useful and that y'all enjoy it. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated as I plan to pursue this line of writing/thinking for a little while.
A BLURRING WORLD: POSSIBLE INSIGHTS INTO the NATURE of the CHANGE to COME
Not only is there emerging a generation of humans who seek to raise effective new institutions (www.millennialsrising.com), also evloving (autocatalytically -- to steal a term from Jared Diamond) is the effective new technological toolkit they will need to actualize sweeping change, a cluster of innovations that will help to catalyze the impening institutional shift that Strauss and Howe have dubbed "The Fourth Turning" (www.thefourthturning.com).
THE MILLENNIAL TOOLKIT: The Millennial Toolkit includes, but is not limited to, 3-D Virtual Worlds (Second Life [www.secondlife.com], Multiverse [www.multiverse.net], IMVU.com [www.IMVU.com], Web 2.0 (MySpace [www.myspace.com], Friendster [www.friendster.com], Facebook [www.facebook.com], RSS Feeds, Blogs), Bottom-up Reference Tools (Wikipedia [www.wikipedia.com], Hollywood Stock Exchange [www.hsx.com], Google Earth [www.download-google-earth.org], and Rapidly Deployable and Affordable Video Transfer (IPV6 [www.ipv6.org] , Bit-Torrent [www.bittorrent.com], Democracy Player [www.getdemocracy.com]). As predicted by Everett Rogers in Diffusion of Innovations, and supported by Jerry Paffendorf's examination of the Second Life Growth Curve (http://slfuturesalon.blogs.com/second_life_future_salon/2005/10/up_and_to_the_r.html), these new Interactive Communication Technologies (hereafter ICTs) are diffusing at lightning speed, faster than any previous ICTs. And they are helping to lay the structural foundations for the new hyper-dynamic and highly functional institutions the Millenials instinctively seek to build.
The construction process has already begun, but unless one is familiar with the writing and theories of Strauss and Howe this behavior may appear somewhat mysterious. According to one business consultant I heard speak at the recent Harvard Beyond Broadcast conference (www.beyondbroadcast.net), not even Rupert Murdoch, Bill Gates nor Steve Jobs can figure out exactly what is going on with all this new social behavior on the web, they just figure that it will be profitable at some point. :)
GENERATIONAL BLUR and GLOBAL PARADIGM SHIFT: At the same time as they are allowing for the bottom-up growth of new institutions, these new ICTs that compose the Millenial Toolkit are contributing to an unprecedented generational blur (http://blog.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=blog.view&friendID=54575556&blogID=90581622&Mytoken=5A5EFA6C-50A3-4A99-8DCA3DD805844C9F1021073187) that corresponds to the trend that Friedman has dubbed the "flattening of the world". It's a Babel-like Effect that for good or ill is threatening the structural integrity of the common definition of the word "generation", as proposed by Strauss and Howe (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation). By enabling highly effective and socio-economically rewarding trans-lingual, trans-national, and trans-age-group communication the Milennial Toolkit has the potential to dissolve what we now commonly regard as static generations.
In other words, this Fourth Turning may not be limited to Western Societies, but should instead be broadened to a Global Information Shift more closely akin to what Alvin Toffler predicts in The Third Wave (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alvin_Toffler). Rather than splitting hairs, however, perhaps it's better to view this event as a global synching-up of Fourth Turnings.
TRANSGENERATIONAL INSTITUTIONS: Over the next few years the wheels, levers, pulleys, and other simple machines of the new world wide web will be invented, tinkered with, and then finally perfected. Much of this innovation will be accomplished by the Millenial Generation, but also broadly by a "Transgenerational Coalition" that is already begning to emerge. The Mozilla Foundation (www.mozilla.org), Electronic Frontier Foundation (www.eff.org), Creative Commons (http://creativecommons.org/), Acceleration Studies Foundation (www.accelerating.org), and Long Now Foundation (www.longnow.org) are just a few examples of fledgling social institutions whose goals seem to be in alignment with the instinctual goals of the Millenials. In addition to helping develop the Millenial Toolkit, these organizations are also part of it as they allow networking and access to paradigm-busting information. From the Strauss and Howesian perspective, these organizations can also be looked at as the legacy of a Baby Boomer Generation that once sought change en-mass, but was thwarted, but is at it again and is recruiting youth to the cause.
EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGY GROWTH: Taking a step back from the generational dynamics that we are now in the process of living, the current system behavior takes on different context when regarded through the lens of what Ray Kurzweil has dubbed Exponential Technology Growth (http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1). It may sound maniacal that, according to Kurzweil, "we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate)," but the fact remains that there is no compelling evidence, whatsoever, that contradicts Kurzweil's now infamous law, which many world leaders non-overtly subscribe to, and many business folks evangelize. In fact, theories like John Smart's MEST Compression (http://72.14.203.104/searchq=cache:2YVXDVA8d3sJ:www.accelerationwatch.com/mest.html+MEST+compression&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=2) directly support Exponential Technology Growth by indicating that broad convergence is in fact occurring. Therefore we must take it as a given, and come to terms with the notion that we have just now passed the point in global history when generations of technology are doubling at a rate quicker than 22 years, which is the average span of a classical human generation, and that as the trend continues we are going to witness a mind-blowing increase in the pace of innovation.
The reality of Exponentional Technology Growth supports the theory of Generational Blur. If human existence is dependant on a combination of Neurons, Information (soft technology), Hard Technology, and our Environment, then exponential technology growth indicates a directly related paradigm shift in what it means to be a human. The context of Exponential Technology Growth also makes Friedman's Flattening a whole lot more feasible. And it directly supports the Drucker/Toffler shift to an Information Society.
CONCLUSION: We in the U.S. are not only about to undergo an institutional reordering as predicted by Strauus and Howe, but are part of a global dynamic of convergence, generational blur, and exponential technology growth that will change the fundamental nature of our world by changing our form and relationship to information.
Obviously hard to say anything for certain out there, but I think that you manage to identify a number of interesting factors that in play right now. I agree that your conclusions are reasonable but they need not be US centric. In fact I would predict that current up and coming economies (think India & China) with rising education levels will be a strong factor here. There are other things such as science that deserves a mention, but as you stated that this is just the start of a line of thinking and I will be interested to keep up with this as you move forward.
Posted by: Henrik Bennetsen | June 06, 2006 at 11:34 AM
Henrik. I really like the stuff you are writing on http://www.henrikbennetsen.com/ and http://slcreativity.org/blog/ . I have some memes to add that you will hopefully dig, just need some free time to think some more things out. But they're on the way!
Re: your comments about the Millennial Toolkit:
You are dead on that missing from the equation are other non-communication-based innovations. The section listing the technologies should be relabelled to read "THE MILLENNIAL COMMUNICATION TOOLKIT" and not "THE MILLENNIAL TOOLKIT".
But I'll take a stab at what components a full toolkit would include, to continue to push this envelope, develop this memeplex, and hopefully generate some more value.
In addition to those new ICTs, a full "MILLENNIAL TOOLKIT" would also include new advanced, more complex, MEST compressed 1) hard technologies (physical tools), 2) soft technologies (memeplexes, ideas, behavioral instructions sets, ideologies, philosophies, modes of rational thinking), and 3) Behavior (combination / mixing of Hard and Soft Technologies over time). The way I look at it, these three categories plus ICTs, which may be viewed as lying between Hard and Soft Technologies, compose 4 basic categories of physical structures that compose what we percieve as human society
Another way of looking at it: Now that I think of it, John Smart has posted a list that is semantically a bit different than what I propose, but which may be more useful when it comes to breaking down the general overarching domains of identifiable structures that interact to give rise to life as we know it, and main elements of the system that conspire autocatalytically to create what we view as change.
John lists the following domains in support of his Developmental Singularity Hypothesis (http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:6s2IdInYtIQJ:singularitywatch.com/developmentalsinghypothesis.html+MEST+compression&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=15):
1. Informational Substrate -- Examples: Computation, information theory, dynamical systems theory
2. Physical Substrate -- Examples: Astrophysical, physical and chemical sciences
3. Genetic Substrate -- Examples: Biological sciences, evolutionary psychology
4. Memetic Substrate -- Examples: History, social sciences, cognitive sciences, philosophy of mind
5. Technologic Substrate -- Examples: Engineering (chemical, mechanical, electrical, software, etc.), science and technology studies, history and philosophy of science and technology , technology roadmapping and forecasting
Personally, I view information, physical structures, genetics, and memes as technology, but think it's more important to agree that these lists both generally succeed in encapsulating the major structural factors/domains/categories in play. So if we can agree on the general domains (suggestions please if you don't agree, or have more to add) then we can proceed and start making lists of New Structures / Structural Developments by Domain that we expect will compose the Full Millennial Toolkit and catalyze the change to come during the next several years.
ICTs: 3-D Virtual Worlds (Second Life [www.secondlife.com], Multiverse [www.multiverse.net], IMVU.com [www.IMVU.com], Web 2.0 (MySpace [www.myspace.com], Friendster [www.friendster.com], Facebook [www.facebook.com], RSS Feeds, Blogs), Bottom-up Reference Tools (Wikipedia [www.wikipedia.com], Hollywood Stock Exchange [www.hsx.com], Google Earth [www.download-google-earth.org], and Rapidly Deployable and Affordable Video Transfer (IPV6 [www.ipv6.org] , Bit-Torrent [www.bittorrent.com], Democracy Player [www.getdemocracy.com]). -- Also, currency and micropayment sytems. I'd make the argument that Money itself is an early ICT, and that micropayments represent an important MEST compression of this. -- Tangental Note: There's an interesting debate going on between Phil Bowermaster and Will Brown http://www.blog.speculist.com/archives/000765.html about the nature of currency in relation to the thoery of MEST Compression. I definitely subscribe to the Bowermaster school of thought, and would point out that MEST compression has been going in nature for a long, long time. Just read Chapter 6 of Simon Conway Morris' tour de force Life's Solution. He argues soundly for biologicla convergence, which I think is directly related to MEST compression. (Any other big sub-categories??)
Hard Technology: Nanotech, Biotech, Genetics, Microfabrication, 3-D Printing, New Fuels, Carbon Nanotubes, Faster Computer Processors, OLEDs, Dynamic New Rubbers and Plastics, Wi-Max, Augmented Reality Setups, 3-G Cell Phones, Mobile Networking Devices, Better Projectors, Holograms, Higher Resolution Everything, Biofeedback Devices, GPS Integration into Everything, New Sensors, Networks, etc.
Soft Technology: Ideologies, Economic Models, Biological Models, Mathematics, Chemistry, Physics, Psychology, Systems Models, Philosophies, etc.
Behavior: Exponential Technology Growth. Information on a Commodity Curve. Information Aggregation Patterns: MyLifeBits, Google Desktop. MEST/System Quantication: MEST Compression. Behavior Quantification. Networking of Information -- Shannon's Information Laws . Control Room Theory or Autocatalytic Neuroeconomic Ordering/Networking. Hierarchy of Needs Drives: Survival. Food. Water. Shelter. Fuel. Reproduction. Relative economic success. Desire for Conrtrol Over Perceived Environment, aka COPE. :) Self-actualization progress. Trends in # of miliionaires, billionaires. Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns. Singularity Economics and Developmental Trends. Shift to Information Society. Social trends. etc.
What's the Best Way to Identify the Drivers of Change?
Of course I/we will keep forging ahead into this lush information jungle, but I can't help but believe that the real-deal quantification of this stuff will be accomplished with help form bottom-up networks/wikis/idea markets. In accordance to the theories at the heart of Wisodom of Crowds by Surowiecki (http://www.randomhouse.com/features/wisdomofcrowds/) and Smart Mobs by Rheingold (http://www.smartmobs.com/), we should harness collective intelligence to fill-out these lists. I believe that once we can provide folks with several easy-to-understand bins, or domains, then we can ask them to en mass fill them up and critique them. Also, I think it's very feasible to ask users to predict when these structure will pop into existence via a Prediction Market, but with new rules that allow for the standardization of the knowledge, such as the Open Source Tunnel of Time: http://slfuturesalon.blogs.com/second_life_future_salon/2006/02/the_next_proces.html#more. I believe that predictive structural/behavioral/informational/MEST markets designed to create useful and easily cross-referencable 2-d, 3-d, and 4-D databases will greatly help to communicate and diffuse the Full Millennial Toolkit. That's probably why I've got an ICT-leaning bias when I think about technological evolution/development.
Hope this post wasn't too esoteric.
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Updated Thought About the Significance of the Metaverse, Particularly as the Most Important New Technology in the Millenial Toolkit
When I first posted about the Millennial Toolkit on slfuturesalon.blogs.com I received the critique that the toolkit is overly communications-centric and discounts other evolving technologies. Being that this was a solid and valid point, I then acknowledged my bias toward communications, which is due to the fact that I regularly work in the communications field. Of course other harder technologies will play a huge role in the ongoing development of the species. But nevertheless I find myself sticking to the belief that communications technology, particularly the emerging ICT called the Metaverse or 3D/4D web, will be the most important driver of change in the near-term (say 5-10 years).
While all technology interdependently co-evolves, ICTs (technologies like cave paintings, chants, whistling, songs, money, language, books, the telegraph, radio, television, the world wide web) have historically caused/allowed humans to broadly change their socio-economic behavior. The Metaverse is a technology that 1) for the first time in human history can incorporate all previous ICTs, 2) has the power to dramatically affect/empower Communication (superior comm. Platform, allows arrays and recombination of all previous ICTs), Human Neurons (allows news styles of and ultimately quicker learning), Information (allows for new dynamic and contextual information storage), Technology (many new soft and hard technologies will evolve and be developed in virtual worlds, the Metaverse is a new hyper-fluid prototyping substrate, it also allows for the faster development technologies externally by enabling quicker economic behavior and communication), and 3) it is being developed and is diffusing at lightning speed, FASTER THAN ANY PREVIOUS ICT, which proves its utility to the economy and the species.
Yes, the evolution of the metaverse depends on the evolution of many other technologies, and yet it can be viewed as a technology or domain in and of itself. Therefore, I think it's okay to view it as the primary driver of change that will probably play an integral role in the next American Fourth Turning (Strauss and Howe) and a much broader planetary shift into the Information Age.
(I've been enjoying a bit of an externalization spurt that I hope will prove useful. If interested, go check out my myspace blog via the URL listed above and zip me some comments.)
Posted by: -vis | September 26, 2006 at 10:59 AM
Thing about Second Life is when you join you are offered a choice of Avatars. All have nice smiley WHITE faces, unless you want to pose as a Racoon.
And in the adult Horizons Resort, one character, Palad, says whenever the issue arises, we wishes the "furries" would stick to their own "community". He defends his views, but incites others to act. His girlfriend Felicity dismisses all Scots as "mean" and the few who have dared protest this RAMPANT RACISM have been arbitrarily thrown off the site by a defiant management
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